Brief: The global economy is emerging from the depths of the coronavirus crisis. US earnings have smashed expectations and central banks are on permanent stand-by to step in and provide support. And yet the headwinds to the economy easily outnumber the tailwinds, JPMorgan EMEA chief executive Viswas Raghavan says. The coronavirus, which has claimed almost a million lives around the globe and unleashed the worst recession in recent history, has elicited an unprecedented response from the world's central banks and governments. At least $7 trillion in cash to shore up national economies, plus billions in employment protection schemes and other benefits have washed into the financial system, while interest rates are near, or even below, zero to encourage consumption and ward off total economic collapse.
Brief: The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Global Compact (UN Global Compact) and the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) have established the COVID-19 Private Sector Global Facility, a global initiative and collaboration bringing together public and private sector partners to help local communities recover better from the pandemic. Deutsche Post DHL Group, Microsoft Corp. and the PwC network (“PwC”) have already joined the COVID-19 Private Sector Global Facility, and the initiative is open for other like-minded private sector organizations that want to contribute. The Global Facility is a response to corporate calls to action for private sector leaders and governments to work together to address the negative impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. The initiative has been established to better coordinate their responses, helping to ensure that immediate stimulus efforts flow into the real economy. The Global Facility will operate at both the global and national levels. It aims to co-create solutions that are tailored to the phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in a given area and the specificities of the local private sector and government context.
Brief: A lively debate is currently taking place amongst allocators as to whether onsite due diligence and face-to-face meetings are still necessary given the current environment. The simple answer must be a resounding: yes, absolutely. Due diligence, both investment and operational, has always been an integral part of a well-structured investment process. Those of us who have been around since pre-2008 can certainly attest to the fact that a lot has changed since, and the days are long gone when it was possible for managers to simply refer to their stellar track records and assume that investments would be forthcoming without any other questions being asked. Investors have learnt that having a detailed understanding of a strategy is just the beginning and that the operational framework in which a strategy is implemented is also of great importance.
Brief: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant challenges to M&A transactions. Negotiations have crumbled, closings have been delayed and overall M&A activity has declined. While uncertainty remains about when M&A activity will return to normal, it appears that M&A litigation will increase in the coming months. Cases are being filed across the country as buyers and sellers who entered into M&A deals prior to-or in the early stages of-the pandemic seek legal relief to enforce or excuse obligations under their respective agreements. One of the more talked about disputes involves Victoria's Secret owner, L Brands, who sued Sycamore Partners after Sycamore terminated the parties February 20, 2020 merger agreement based on the material adverse effect (MAE) provision.
Brief: Goldman Sachs has marked out the Mexican peso as its top emerging market (EM) currency pick “once the dust settles” from the coronavirus pandemic. In a note Thursday, Goldman strategists suggested that while it may be too early to engage with high-yield EM bets, with risks still prevalent and the dollar on the move, it is not too early to start thinking systematically about opportunities once the crisis subsides. Co-Head of Global Foreign Exchange Kamakshya Trivedi and Head of EM Cross-Asset Research Caesar Maasry, along with a team of strategists, identified the peso as the most attractive among “high cyclical beta, high carry longs.” It was closely followed by the South African rand (ZAR) and Russian ruble (RUB).
Brief: Companies spent the equivalent of around US$15bn1 extra a week on technology to enable safe and secure home working during COVID-19, reveals the 2020 Harvey Nash/KPMG CIO Survey. This was one of the biggest surges in technology investment in history – with the world’s IT leaders spending more than their annual budget rise2 in just three months, as the global crisis hit, and lockdowns began to be enforced. The largest technology leadership survey in the world of over 4,200 IT leaders, analyzing responses from organizations with a combined technology spend of over US$250bn, also found that security and privacy is the top investment during COVID-19, and cyber security (35%) is now the most “in demand” technology skill in the world. This is the first time a security related skill has topped the list of global technology skills shortages for over a decade. Four in 10 IT leaders report that their company has experienced more cyber attacks, with more than three quarters of these attacks from phishing (83%) and almost two thirds from malware (62%), suggesting that the massive move to home working has increased exposure from employees.