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Our briefing for Monday, April 4, 2022:
Apr 4, 2022 4:13:55 PM
- In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will lift a controversial public health rule known as Title 42, that has blocked millions from attempting to cross the border. On Friday the CDC said in a statement that the order will be lifted on May 23, allowing the Department of Homeland Security time to establish a program for providing vaccinations to migrants crossing into the U.S. The administration has said that those who refuse to get vaccinated and haven’t been previously vaccinated will be held at Immigration and Customs Enforcement Detention if they are single adults or released on tighter conditions if they are families. Title 42 was imposed in March 2020 by then President Donald Trump to stop Covid-19 from spreading across the nation’s land borders with Canada and Mexico.
- In Canada, a new survey has found that the pandemic created division among Canadians, and that it is currently one of the country’s most polarizing issues. The national phone survey by the Canadian Hub for Applied and Social Research at the University of Saskatchewan was conducted between March 7 and March 24 and involved 1,011 Canadians. The Covid-19 pandemic at 72% and the federal election at 73% were the most divisive issues over the past two years, respondents said. About 40% of respondents said arguments about the pandemic or politics have caused them to reduce contact with family or friends.
- In the United Kingdom, a new Covid-19 variant has been detected and according to the World Health Organization (WHO), it may be more transmissible than any previous strain. The variant, known as XE, is a mutation of BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron strains, and also known as a “recombinant.” "Early-day estimates indicate a community growth rate advantage of 10 percent as compared to BA.2, however, this finding requires further confirmation," the WHO said. Health officials said there were about 637 cases of XE and that it was first detected in mid-January. Meanwhile, cases in the U.K. have reached record numbers, with an estimated 4.9 million people infected in the week ending March 26.
- Hong Kong has asked its entire population of more than 7.4 million to voluntarily test themselves for Covid-19. The testing will begin next week and last for three days in a row, from April 8-10. Chef Executive Carrie Lam made the announcement on Saturday, explaining that a mass compulsory test will also still be needed but she did not say when that would happen. Authorities suspended the idea when a previous announcement caused panic buying. For now, testing will be done at home voluntarily with rapid test kits delivered by the government, and any infections should be reported to the authorities within 24 hours.
- South Korea has opened to fully vaccinated tourists from all countries, allowing them to enter without quarantine as of Friday. A negative coronavirus test is still required for entry. The government is considering relaxing more restrictions, including the rule to wear masks outdoors. Health Minister Kwon Deok-cheol said on Friday that the curfew for restaurants will be pushed back to midnight from 11 PM, and private gatherings of up to 10 people will be allowed, beginning April 4. If daily case numbers continue to fall, more restrictions will be removed, with the exception of wearing masks indoors, Kwon said.
- Australia is offering a fourth jab to anyone over 65, the immunocompromised, those in long-term care homes and Indigenous Australians over 50. Beginning today, anyone within those groups can get their fourth shot, so long as they’ve had their booster at least four months ago. The rollout comes as experts are predicting a dual Covid-19 and flu wave, over the winter months, fearing the flu season will coincide with an Omicron BA.2 surge. Right now case numbers are falling in Victoria and New South Wales, although hospitalizations are on the rise.
Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management
Great Resignation Isn’t Slowing and May Persist, Randstad Says
Brief: The Great Resignation shows no sign of easing and a dwindling supply of workers may be here to stay, according to Randstad NV, a global provider of employment services. Fewer people in the job market, underpinned by a long-term demographic trend, is allowing talented workers to have more options and they’re going where their needs are met, said Sander van ‘t Noordende, who took over as chief executive officer of the Dutch company on Tuesday. “That is sort of a change today: Employees are more prepared to attach consequences to their unhappiness or not getting what they want,” van ‘t Noordende said in a phone interview as Randstad revealed its latest Workmonitor report. “They’re prepared to quit their job if they’re not happy.” The Great Resignation has been a boon to employees searching for better working conditions and higher pay. Economies bouncing back from the pandemic and work from home options have made it easier for employees to quit unappealing positions and look for alternatives, driving up wages.
A Transformational Year: Assessing the changing prime brokerage landscape
Brief: The collapse of Archegos and the GameStop short squeeze has radically upended the hedge fund prime brokerage space over the past year, raising fundamental questions over PBs’ lending activities and business models. The implosion of Archegos Capital Management in early 2021, coupled with the “meme stock” short-selling squeeze which saw amateur investors drive up the price of selected shorted stocks – handing hefty losses to certain hedge fund managers in the process – has brought renewed upheaval to a prime brokerage sector that had only recently adapted to the challenges of Covid-19 and a landscape of lower revenues and falling trading volumes post-2008. The sudden meltdown of Archegos – the New York-based family office led by Bill Hwang, a former ‘Tiger Cub’ who previously managed money at Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management – led to USD10 billion in losses for its brokers.
How the Pandemic Transformed the PE Secondaries Market
Brief: Over the last two years, funds that hold only a few huge companies — often only one – have come to dominate the private equity secondary market. These funds, called continuation funds or GP-led secondaries, allow general partners to hold onto what they believe are still-promising companies after a fund reaches the end of its life as well as raise new money from existing clients. In 2021, 44 percent of GP-led secondaries were invested in single-asset or highly concentrated continuation funds, up by 9 percentage points from the year before, according to private equity advisory firm Campbell Lutyens. Investors have been gravitating towards single-asset funds in part because they can “dig deeper into assets and into the work that particular general partners carry out,” according to Gonzalo Erroz, partner at the U.K.-based manager Hayfin Capital Management. The pandemic made it harder for investors to conduct due diligence on larger portfolios.
Pandemic continues to drive investors to active management
Brief: If the latest numbers from the Investment Funds Institute of Canada (IFIC) are any indication, the pandemic has created a resurgence in active management. Investors who rushed to beat the March 1 registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) contribution deadline pumped nearly $10 billion into mutual funds in February alone, according to IFIC. As of March 1, total mutual fund assets reached $2 trillion in Canada. A big chunk of that came from a $111.5-billion bump in mutual fund sales in 2021. That’s nearly four times the $29 billion in mutual fund sales in 2020, which was in line with average annual sales going back to 2000. In comparison, sales in passively-managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) totaled $4 billion in February, bringing total assets to $317.7 billion by March 1.Over half of February’s mutual fund sales went into balanced funds, which have been the funds of choice throughout the pandemic. Like the name implies, balanced funds attempt to strike a balance between equities and fixed income.
Pandemic Recovery Stocks a Good Bet, Causeway’s Ketterer Says
Brief: It’s still a good time to buy stocks that benefit from a pandemic recovery, such as airline and travel companies, according to Sarah Ketterer, chief executive officer of Causeway Capital Management. Investments with upside that have been held down by the prolonged Covid-19 outbreak and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine include Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Ryanair Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest discount airline, she said during an interview Friday with David Westin on Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week.” “Alphabet is interesting to us, because some of their ads are related to travel and leisure and we see that recovering,” Ketterer said. “These are opportunities for investors, because we can’t assume that invasions last forever and this pandemic is thankfully dissipating.” Stocks rallied this week, recovering some of the ground lost so far in 2022, while bonds flashed a key recession warning sign as rates of short-term Treasuries exceeded longer-term debt in what’s known as a yield-curve inversion.
