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Our briefing for Monday, October 18, 2021:
Oct 18, 2021 3:35:33 PM
- In the United States, case numbers are improving slightly but Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, says the future really depends on vaccination rates. Currently about 57% of the U.S. population are fully vaccinated. The good news, Fauci said, is that there may not necessarily be another wave of infections. "It's going to be within our capability to prevent that from happening," said Fauci. "The degree to which we continue to come down in that slope will depend on how well we do about getting more people vaccinated."
- In Canada, the government is considering whether to extend pandemic support programs for businesses and individuals as five programs are set to expire on October 23. The Canada Emergency Rent Subsidy and Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy can be extended by the federal cabinet until November 30. The Canada Recovery Benefit, Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit, and the Canada Recovery Caregiver Benefit, can all be extended to November 20 by an order of cabinet. All programs would require new legislation to be introduced if they were to be extended beyond those dates. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland says she’s consulting with businesses, economists and labour groups but did not give any further information.
- In the United Kingdom, England will open walk-in clinics for children ages 12-15 to get their Covid-19 vaccinations. Currently in England the vaccination rate among the age group rests at just 14.2%, compared to 44.3% in Scotland, the Guardian reports. This is believed to be because Scotland allows 12-15-year-olds to attend walk-in clinics, rather than just having their vaccinations at school. Older children ages 16-18 can already attend walk-in clinics and have a 56.5% vaccination rate. Children ages 12-15 in England are testing positive for coronavirus at a higher percentage than any other age group.
- Japan’s recent Covid-19 success has left the rest of the world confused, as vaccination rates soar and case numbers plummet. Japan did things differently in the sense that it has never had an official lockdown, only a series of states of emergency with relatively simple curbs put in place. But now case numbers in Tokyo have fallen below 100 daily, and the government has slowly begun to reintroduce social and economic activity. Many credit the country’s vaccination campaigns with the recent success, as almost 70% of Japan’s population is fully vaccinated.
- The Philippines will begin to administer Covid-19 vaccines to children ages 12-17, in an effort to reopen schools safely. According to a report by the United Nations Children’s agency UNICEF, the Philippines are one of 17 countries in the world where schools have been closed throughout the entirety of the pandemic. The news comes as the country reports 6943 new infections and 86 new deaths, bringing the total cumulative case number to over 2.7 million. So far the Philippines has vaccinated about 24 million of its 110 million population.
- Australia’s city of Melbourne will reopen after withstanding the longest lockdown in the world. Premier Daniel Andrews made the announcement on Sunday, with the state projected to reach the 70% vaccination milestone later this week. The state has been under six lockdowns totalling 262 days, or almost nine months since March 2020. “Today is a day when Victorians can be proud of what they have achieved,” said Andrews. “As of 11:59pm on Thursday, there will be no lockdown, no restrictions on leaving home and no curfew,” he said. Victoria state reported 1838 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, and seven new deaths.
Covid-19 – Due Diligence And Asset Management
London Office Workers Still Spending Some of Their Week at Home
Brief: Offices are starting to fill up again, but it’s still not where Londoners are spending their entire work week. More than 80% of London-based office employees who participated in a JPMorgan Chase & Co. survey said working full time either from home or from the office were their least preferred options after the ending of pandemic restrictions, analysts led by Neil Green wrote in a note. The analysts polled about 650 workers between Sept. 30 and Oct. 12, with about two-thirds of respondents saying they were back in the office on a regular basis. Only 37% said they had been going in five days.“This data strongly supports the trend for flexible offices,” the analysts wrote. “Employee demands are evolving.”
Industry argues stagflation fears based on misnomer
Brief: The “nightmare scenario” of stagflation rearing its head is less likely than many investors think, according to investment professionals, who say the current backdrop is not comparable to the last prolonged period of stagflation during the 1970s and early 1980s.However, they warn that expectations for stagflation could lead to a "significant reversal" across nominal bond and equity markets. Stagflation, when economic growth slows and unemployment increases while inflation ticks higher, creates a tough environment for investors, given consumer spending slows, companies' earnings fall and unemployment continues rising. It is a difficult cycle to break, as evidenced between 1973 and 1982, when the oil embargo of 1973 hit prices and first challenged the seemingly stable inverse correlation between inflation and unemployment.
Boris Johnson Hosts Business Leaders’ Dinner Amid U.K. Investment Push
Brief: Prime Minister Boris Johnson will host a dinner Monday with 20 of the world’s most powerful executives ahead of a summit designed to boost investment into the U.K. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon and Bill Gates will be among the guests, according to the Daily Telegraph. Stephen Schwarzman, co-founder of private equity firm Blackstone Inc., Barclays Plc CEO Jes Staley andBanco Santander SA Chairman Ana Botin and will also be there, the newspaper reported. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will host a separate dinner for other leading business figures on the same evening in the capital’s financial district alongside William Russell, the Lord Mayor of London. More than 200 top business people have been invited to Tuesday’s summit, which is aimed at boosting business investment in Britain.
Top 500 managers see assets hit record USD119.5tn
Brief: Assets under management (AuM) at the world’s 500 largest asset managers have reached a new record of USD119.5 trillion, according to new research from the Thinking Ahead Institute. As of the end of 2020, this represents an increase of 14.5 per cent on the previous year when total AUM was previously USD104.4 trillion.The research, conducted in conjunction with Pensions & Investments, a leading US investment newspaper, confirms growing concentration among the top 20 managers whose market share increased during the period to 44 per cent of total assets. Of the top 500 managers, 221 names which featured on the list a decade ago in 2011 are now absent in 2021, demonstrating a quickening pace of competition, consolidation and rebranding.
Wall Street banks set to profit again when Fed withdraws pandemic stimulus
Brief: Wall Street banks have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the pandemic-era trading boom, fueled by the Federal Reserve's massive injection of cash into financial markets. With the central bank nearing the time when it will start winding down its asset purchases, banks are set to profit again as increased volatility encourages clients to buy and sell more stocks and bonds, analysts, investors and executives say. The Fed has been buying up government-backed bonds since March 2020, adding $4 trillion to its balance sheet, as part of an emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The strategy was designed to stabilize financial markets and ensure companies and other borrowers had sufficient access to capital. It succeeded but also resulted in unprecedented levels of liquidity, helping equity and bond traders enjoy their most profitable period since the 2007-09 financial crisis.
