Brief: The financial regulator has warned 4,000 firms in the financial services sector are at "heightened risk" of failing as a result of the coronavirus crisis. In its most detailed financial snapshot of the market published since the pandemic began the Financial Conduct Authority said almost a third of these firms could potentially cause harm to consumers should they collapse. Within the retail investment market, which includes advisers, self-invested personal pension operators and platforms, 3,414 firms predicted the crisis would have a negative impact on income. The advice sector had one of the highest proportion of firms expecting a drop in income, equating to 66 per cent of the 5,159 firms which responded to the FCA's data request. But the impact on income was largely predicted to be minimal, with 2,973 of the firms in the retail investment market which predicted a drop estimating the reduction would sit between 1 and 25 per cent and only 26 firms saying income might plummet by more than 76 per cent. The FCA sent its financial resilience survey to 13,000 firms in the wider financial services in June and to a further 10,000 firms in August.
Brief: Brevan Howard Asset Management has recorded its best year since the hedge fund firm began investing nearly two decades ago. The main fund at billionaire Alan Howard’s firm was up 27.4% last year, the most since 2003, according to an investor letter seen by Bloomberg. That compares with a 3.4% average return for macro hedge funds through November, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Brevan Howard Master Fund managed $4.3 billion at the end of November. The biggest boost came in March thanks to gains from interest-rate bets, option trading in equity and credit indexes and from oil, according to an investor letter seen by Bloomberg. A spokesman for the Jersey-based investment firm declined to comment. Brevan Howard is making up lost ground after years of mediocre returns shrunk its assets by more than 80% from a 2013 peak to about $6.4 billion two years ago. Clients are now returning, lured by improved performance and as rising volatility creates money-making opportunities for macro hedge funds. Its assets rose to about $11.4 billion at the end of November. The firm’s rebound was also fueled by a more than 100% gain in a hedge fund earlier last year that Howard personally manages. Full-year returns for the AH Master Fund, which invests money for the main hedge fund, the billionaire’s own cash and for a few external investors, are not known.
Brief: Marathon Asset Management ("Marathon"), a leading global credit investment manager, today announced the final close for its Marathon Distressed Credit Fund, which was oversubscribed with approximately $2.5 billion in commitments. The fund will invest in a wide range of situations by providing capital solutions that allow companies to grow or reposition their businesses, including stressed and distressed companies in transition. The opportunities it will pursue include restructurings, debtor in possession financings, and exit financings where Marathon can bring to bear its differentiated expertise, experience and resources. "While the broader market has recovered, the K-shaped recovery has resulted in a disparate impact that requires tailored capital solutions to help companies across industries recover from the 2020 cyclical decline," said Bruce Richards, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of Marathon. "Companies that are well positioned for future growth may need a thoughtful and sophisticated capital partner to navigate the downturn, even in the event it may require a consensual restructuring." Louis Hanover, Chief Investment Officer of Marathon, said: "Following a prolonged economic expansion marked by mispriced risk and heavily levered capital structures with weak documentation we are presented with an optimal investment environment to prudently and opportunistically deploy capital."
Brief: Canada’s economy and financial markets are moving in opposite directions as investors drive up asset prices in response to cheap-money policies. That trend will continue in the months ahead, according to Manulife’s Frances Donald. The country is grappling with a fresh set of lockdowns as governments try to quell a wave of Covid-19 infections. Quebec, the second-largest provincial economy, is likely to unveil new restrictions Wednesday that will shut down the construction sector. Less than 1% of the population has been vaccinated so far, putting Canada behind the U.S. and U.K. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite Index is near a record after rising about 8% in three months. Economically-sensitive energy and industrial stocks have surged, while bank shares are up 14% since Oct 5.While vaccines have arrived, “the economic benefits are probably not solved before the second half of the year,” Donald, global chief economist and head of macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management, said by phone. “In 2021, my suspicion is the disconnect between the economy and markets continues.” Economists are still predicting a strong recovery in the second half of the year, as vaccines allow for a rebound in travel, entertainment and other sectors that have been crushed by the pandemic. Even so, Donald doesn’t see a full recovery until 2022. That’s because there will be structural scarring to the economy from business closures, job losses and new ways of working.
Brief: The majority of family offices will not significantly alter their asset allocation strategies in 2021 despite the likely market turbulence and challenging economic conditions that lie ahead. This is the chief finding from a survey of family offices conducted by BlackRock. Of the 185 offices that were canvassed, only 23% said that they plan to make material changes to their asset allocations. BlackRock ascribes this to the long-term investment outlook adopted by most family offices. However, the asset manager also warned against viewing the events of 2020 as simply short-term volatility and ignoring the likely long-term impacts. “While we recognise Family Offices have a long-term investment horizon, we believe that the nature of the crisis will have a long lasting impact on economic growth, interest rates and corporate fundamentals leading to structural shifts across asset classes,” said Sheryl Needham, managing director, head of Emea family offices at BlackRock. “It’s important that even long-term investors consider the resilience of their portfolios by reviewing their strategic asset allocation, to ensure they are positioned to navigate current markets, protect wealth and to harness opportunities through the recovery.”
Brief: Some investors including William Ackman and Glenn Welling, who push corporations to perform better, posted record-breaking returns in 2020 when activist investors generally backed off demands during a year marked by wild and unexpected business conditions. Ackman’s publicly traded Pershing Square Holdings fund rose 70.2%, marking the best-ever return at his 16-year-old firm Pershing Square Capital Management and one of the best in the hedge fund industry. In 2019, the fund rose 58%, also a record. Welling’s Engaged Capital, founded in 2012 and known for pushing companies like Medifast Inc and Hain Celestial Group Inc to make changes, returned 51%. That tops the firm’s previous record return set in 2019 with a 34% gain. And Andrew Left, who has targeted companies he thinks are over-valued through his work at Citron Research, told investors that his hedge fund returned 155% in 2020, after gaining 43% in 2019, the fund’s first year in business. The gains reflect a late-year rebound among activists - fueled partly by strong stock market gains - with the average fund up 6.7% in the first 11 months of 2020 after a 27% drop in the first quarter, Hedge Fund Research data shows. Activist campaigns were down 20% in 2020 from the previous year, Lazard data shows.